A study in Nature shows that a 2–4°C increase reduces the growth “niches” for 30 key crops, particularly affecting low latitudes and North East Africa, and shifts agriculture to higher altitudes; in Israel, apples only thrive above ~600 m due to a lack of cold hours.
While the supermarket shelves may seem full, beneath the surface the climate crisis is beginning to disrupt what was once taken for granted: the ability to grow food. A new study paints a disturbing picture of the changing landscape of agriculture in the wake of the climate crisis, which is altering environmental conditions and the fertile lands that provide us with the bulk of our agricultural produce. Here in the Middle East, too, some of our traditional crops will struggle to survive, and agriculture will be forced to readjust – in terms of altitude, varieties, and perhaps even our eating habits.
Growing everywhere
"Agriculture is a traditional field, and naturally for thousands of years the tendency has always been to grow crops that are suitable for the local climate. For example, in a certain area it was appropriate to grow potatoes and in another area it was appropriate to grow rice," says Dr. Yael Grunwald, a researcher in the Fruit Tree Department at the Volcanic Institute who deals with the adaptation of fruit trees to climate change and a graduate of interface program. For this reason, the climate crisis is a danger to agriculture. “Since humans began farming a few thousand years ago, the weather has remained more or less stable. Extreme events like drought or flooding have occurred from time to time, but generally the conditions in a given area have been predictable,” she says. Now, with the climate changing, “all the cards are stacked. In many areas, it is difficult to grow the same crops that we used to grow.”
study A recent study published in Nature examined how the climate crisis would affect the ability to produce 30 major food sources from a variety of categories: cereals, fruits and vegetables, oilseeds, roots and legumes. To test this, the study defined a “niche” that included the appropriate growing conditions for each food source, such as precipitation, growing season temperature and dryness. The research team examined different scenarios of temperature increases of 2, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius. So far, the average surface temperature on Earth has increased In 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. According to the study, a 2-degree warming is expected to have a negative impact on the global niche size of all 30 crops tested, including barley, maize, wheat, rice, bananas, tomatoes, onions, soybeans, lentils and potatoes. In addition, a 4-degree warming would see some crops such as yams and coconuts lose more than half of their niche size.
In low latitudes, which are closer to the equator, more significant damage is expected compared to areas further from the equator. Photo: Pixabay
Agriculture at significant risk
In the various warming scenarios examined in the study, a particular agricultural area was classified as “at significant risk” if its crop weight was expected to decline by 25 percent or more. A key finding of the research team is related to the geographic location of the crops. Lower latitudes, closer to the equator, are expected to be more severely affected than areas further from the equator.
In a scenario where the Earth warms by 2 degrees Celsius, there will be areas near the equator where it will not be possible to sustain agriculture at all. With a warming of 3 degrees Celsius, about 70 percent of agricultural areas in the Middle East and North Africa and 60 percent of agricultural areas in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will be defined as being at significant risk. In contrast, in North America and Europe, many areas will not be at risk at all at any level of warming tested. In our neighborhood, the Middle East, a decline of one-third in the niches of tubers, legumes, fruits, and vegetables is expected. Globally, rice, an important food source, will lose one-sixth of its niche.
Increase in the height of agricultural areas
To address the challenge, there are a number of solutions that can help us be full. For example, due to climate change, conditions suitable for agriculture in high areas that are currently unsuitable for agriculture will improve, with an emphasis on areas above 2,500 meters in altitude that are expected to be warmer and drier. This situation is also familiar in Israel, for example, "In the past, the Hula Valley was full of apple orchards. Today, due to global warming, the winters in Hula are not as cold as they used to be, and without sufficient accumulation of cold hours in the winter, the apples do not develop properly. Today, in Israel, apples can only be grown at altitudes above 600 meters above sea level, where temperatures are lower," says Grunwald. In addition, "because in recent years there has been an increase in the frequency and duration of Heat waves "In hot seasons, fruit trees have difficulty producing as much as they used to, and many tree collapses have even been documented as a result of a long string of particularly hot days," she explains. Another solution involves studying plants and their climate resilience. Plants, unlike humans who can, in the worst case, become climate refugees and migrate, stay in place and have to deal with their environment. "When conditions are unfavorable, plants cannot get up and move to another place. During evolution, plants have developed mechanisms that have allowed them to deal with the local climate conditions in which they grow, which has made them best adapted to the environment - otherwise they would not have survived," she says. Another solution is on us, the consumers, and it includes A change in our eating habits.
The research findings illustrate the magnitude of the challenge facing global agriculture in an era of accelerating global warming. In this reality, substantial steps are required from governments, researchers, and consumers alike to food security For all people on the globe. “In almost all parts of the world, agriculture is not an ‘independent’ industry, and without government support it would have been difficult to survive,” says Grunwald. According to her, support comes in various ways: direct money, water subsidies and investment in innovation. “A significant part of agricultural research deals with climate change and its impact on plants, whether directly, such as heat and drought damage, or indirectly, such as an increase in the presence of pests and diseases that benefit from a ‘more pleasant’ climate in winter,” says Grunwald. The future of agriculture no longer lies only in the soil – but also in our ability to adapt, innovate and act together.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
