The 80th birthday of the last earthquake puts us in a period called "the domain of statistical error" - the return time of a devastating earthquake, like the one that hit us in 1927, is about 100 years
In an earthquake similar to the devastating earthquake that occurred on July 11, 1927 in the Land of Israel, approximately 17% of the old buildings in Jerusalem that were built before the establishment of the state, and in the first years of its existence, are expected to be damaged. In addition to them, about 11% of the new buildings built with medium construction quality and only about 6% of the new buildings built with good construction quality are expected to be damaged. In Tel Aviv, the percentage of buildings expected to be damaged is 9%, 5% and 2% respectively. This is what Dr. Ron Avni of Ben-Gurion University states, in a special simulation he performed these days, on the 80th anniversary of that earthquake.
The epicenter of the earthquake that occurred 80 years ago was in the northern Dead Sea and measured 6.25 on the Richter scale. In this earthquake, almost 300 people were killed throughout the Land of Israel and Transjordan. From the middle of the 18th century until today, 3 devastating earthquakes have occurred in the region: in 1759, in 1837 - the one that destroyed Safed and claimed more than 5,000 lives - and in 1927. These three earthquakes originate in the Jordan Valley and the Dead Sea (part of the fault the Syrian African), and the average return time of all three is 84 years.
Dr. Avni: "The 80th 'birthday' of the last earthquake puts us in a period called the "zone of statistical error" for the determination that, according to what we know about the destructive earthquakes that have occurred in the past, the time of the return of a destructive earthquake, like the one that hit us in - 1927, is about 100 years".
Dr. Avni states that according to the experience gained in earthquakes in Europe, it can be estimated that out of 17% of the buildings that will be damaged in Jerusalem and that the quality of their construction is poor, about 45% will be relatively lightly damaged (cracks in plaster and walls), 5% will be heavily damaged (wide cracks in the walls). And 5% will collapse and be destroyed. Of the 11% of the new buildings that were damaged and built with medium construction quality (most of the residences that were built By the end of the 70s, about 50% will be relatively lightly damaged and 50% will be heavily damaged, as described for Eyal. All six percent of the new buildings whose construction quality is good will be relatively lightly damaged, on the other hand. Only 2% of the old buildings built before the establishment of the state, and in the first years of its existence, are expected to be damaged According to the mandatory standard, no real damages are expected in an earthquake that will occur in the northern Dead Sea and its magnitude will be about 6.2 on the Richter scale.
However, Dr. Ron Avni emphasizes, in most local authorities, there is no data regarding the distribution of the buildings in the city according to their level of resistance against earthquakes. According to him, according to the scenarios prepared by the governmental steering committee for preparing against earthquakes for earthquakes of magnitude 7 and 7.5 on the Richter scale ( which are 30 times larger than the 1927 earthquake, but closer in size to the earthquake that destroyed Safed In 1837), the extent of the destruction and casualties will be high, reaching thousands of casualties. In the model used by Dr. Avni, there is no way to estimate the extent of the casualties The number of buildings in each city in the cross-section of construction qualities, data that, as mentioned, are not available.
5 תגובות
In Japan, the nuclear reactor was damaged and damaged the environment just two weeks ago in the recent earthquake
And what about the reactor in Israel (if it exists)??
Walla!
Anyway, regarding the comments..
Mr. Ami is right, it should in principle go from taxes, but who the hell knows where the taxes go?!
In any case, there are people in Israel begging for a roof, even if it collapses on them. and for food
So earthquake worries are nice.
What fun it will be, eh?
like war
We know he will come and kill here and there, but they spawn more Homo sapiens without a problem..
A cruel game, at least it will be interesting.
One that he likes.
More money for the insurance companies from these news. Just to scare the public. After all, there are things that scream much louder now and with 100% certainty.
A simple calculation shows that 0.85% of the old buildings with poor construction quality in Jerusalem will collapse completely. It's interesting how much it turns out in numbers and it's interesting how much more it turns out in the people who live there. Let's assume that everyone who lives in a building that collapses will die. Urban density and population growth in the last eighty years have resulted in a situation where a similar damage today would be seven times more severe than a similar damage back then.
The key: renovation and strengthening of buildings. Who should pay for it? the tax payer. why? Because in the case of his threatened scenarios in which there will be a large mortality due to savings in strengthening such structures, the price that the taxpayer will be forced to pay later will be much greater. Second, Israel is a guarantor to each other, and anyone who saves one soul from Israel is as if he saved a whole world (and even a soul that is not from Israel, if you ask me).