Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been identified by NASA with a low chance – just over 1% – of colliding with Earth in December 2032. Scientists continue to collect data and refine calculations to assess the true risk.

A skyscraper-sized asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, has caught NASA's attention due to a small chance – just over 1% – of colliding with Earth in 2032.
While this may sound alarming, history shows that similar early warnings tend to fade as more data is collected. Scientists continue to track the asteroid's trajectory, recalculating and examining data to determine whether this space rock will hit Earth or miss.
NASA has identified a near-Earth asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a slightly more than 1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. However, this also means there is a 99% chance that there will be no collision at all. As scientists gather more data, estimates of the odds may change.
Currently, no other large asteroid is known to have a probability of impact greater than 1%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024, and reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC), the global database for tracking small bodies in the solar system. It was detected by NASA's ATLAS station in Chile, an early warning system for asteroids that could hit Earth.
The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in size, attracted attention when it was added to NASA's Sentinel System risk list on December 31, 2024. The Sentinel System continuously monitors near-Earth objects that have a zero chance of impact in the future.
An object reaching this level of risk is not unusual; there have been several asteroids in the past that have reached the same rating, but have been removed from the list as more data has been collected. Additional observations could lead to a reassessment of the asteroid's trajectory and a change in the odds to zero, as has happened in previous cases.
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