NASA and international scientists are monitoring new data to determine the chances of a collision and the risk it could cause. Since it is a short-range event, actions have already begun to deal with it. Among other things, China has launched a campaign to recruit experts for the "planetary defense" team. * But even if, God forbid, it hits, it is not the end of humanity, only enormous damage in the area of impact.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 continues to attract the attention of the scientific community, with the latest data indicating that the chances of it colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032 have increased from 1% to 2.3%. Although the chance of a collision is still relatively low, the increase indicates that measurements are getting better, and researchers indicate that the asteroid's trajectory still carries some uncertainty. As it approaches, NASA and international agencies are tracking it using ground-based telescopes in the Global Asteroid Warning Network, and soon, in March 2025, the Webb Space Telescope will try to help determine its precise size and characteristics.
According to current estimates, the asteroid's diameter ranges from 40 to 90 meters, making it a similar size to those that caused events such as the Tunguska explosion in 1908. Its rating on the Turin scale is 3, indicating that a potential impact event, if it were to occur, would have limited effects to the impact area and would not spread to global effects. However, in the event of a collision, the consequences could be severe on a local level. If the asteroid is composed of rocky material, it could explode in the atmosphere – a phenomenon known as an “airburst” – and produce a shock wave and a lot of heat, which could cause significant damage in the impact area, but not on a wide regional scale. On the other hand, if it is made of iron or another dense material, it could penetrate the atmosphere with almost no changes in its trajectory and create a prominent impact crater, which could cause severe local destruction.
The importance of accurately tracking the asteroid stems from the need to reduce the uncertainty associated with its orbit. As new measurements are made, the chances of a collision may first increase before decreasing to zero – a natural process resulting from the reduction of the uncertainty zone around its orbit. Against this background, a number of international bodies, including space agencies and even governments, are intensifying efforts to develop protection, tracking and early warning systems to prepare for even the small possibility of a collision.
Beyond that, there are also efforts not only to monitor but also to try and prevent the collision in the event that it turns out to be real. For example, China has begun a campaign to recruit experts for a "planetary defense" team that is engaged in the development of monitoring systems, early warning and experimental technologies such as kinetic thrusters, designed to change the trajectory of dangerous asteroids. This recruitment indicates the understanding that with scientific and technological development, we have the ability to deal with such threats in the future.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
6 תגובות
For those who ask, "How do we see an asteroid that will hit in 8 years from now?", you need to understand - these are bodies that, like the Earth, orbit the Sun in a fixed, cyclical orbit that happens to intersect ours at a certain point. From the moment you discover it (for example, when it passed close to us during one of its orbits), you can of course calculate its future orbit and know when, if at all, it will pass through the meeting point with Earth. For example, they knew as early as 2004 that 'Apophis' might hit Earth in 2029.
It must not be prevented from colliding with Earth. It will most likely fall in Iran or Egypt.
proofreading suggestions:
1) "The chances of a collision with Earth (in 2032) have doubled to 2.3% (-)"
2) What is "collision risk"? (In the subtitle.) Did you mean "the chance of collision"?
3) "The Webb Space Telescope will try to help"
4) "Dangerous asteroids" (last paragraph) – add a comma/opening under the "s." or change to "Earth-dangerous asteroids."
How do you see an asteroid with a maximum diameter of 90 meters now? That will hit in 7-8 years?
It is currently December 22, 2032.
And still the chances that it will not hit the Earth are 97.8%, which is significantly higher than those 2..% that you write to us. Regarding the date. There will probably be more updates, I guess.