Analysis of 16 “tipping points” suggests that the accumulation of feedbacks – from forests to glaciers and oceans – could accelerate warming even if emissions fall in the future, creating a “desert” of climate stability
A new warning from an international team of scientists says the current rate of warming could push the climate system into a self-feeding cycle – so that even if greenhouse gas emissions continue to decline, certain processes will continue to accelerate warming on their own. The findings were published in the journal One Earth in a paper summarizing decades of research on “tipping points” and how key subsystems on Earth influence each other. (cell.com)
According to William Ripple of Oregon State University, such a scenario would constitute a “global tipping point”: a moment when the climate system crosses a threshold and rolls in a warmer direction even if humans try to curb further warming. (Inside Climate News)
What is a “greenhouse orbit” and how is it different from a “greenhouse Earth”?
Researchers distinguish between a “greenhouse trajectory” and a steady state of “greenhouse Earth.” A greenhouse trajectory is a dynamic process in which positive feedback between different systems (glaciers, forests, oceans, etc.) strengthens and makes it difficult to stop warming even after emissions are reduced. A “greenhouse Earth” state, on the other hand, is a new state in which the climate equilibrates over time at a much higher average temperature.
One of the points emphasized in the article is that “there is no good analogue” to the current scenario in recent geological periods: According to Johan Rockström, we are starting from a situation that is already considered “warm,” and therefore the transition is from “warm” to “very warm” – a movement that could get stuck around an increase of 4–6 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, if enough reinforcing feedbacks are activated.
At the same time, the article in Inside Climate News emphasizes that scientists estimate that warming is progressing faster than anything recorded in at least the last three million years – and therefore there is no clear “user manual” for what will come next.
16 “Elements” at Risk and a Possible Chain Reaction
The One Earth article analyzes 16 key components of the Earth system—for example, forests, coral reefs, ice sheets, ocean currents—that could undergo dramatic change when they warm beyond certain thresholds. The central idea is not just that each such component “breaks” on its own, but that an impact on one component can weaken another, starting a “domino” of tipping points.
An example given in this context is the loss of the function of natural systems as “shock absorbers”: if large parts of forests or coral reefs collapse, they absorb less carbon dioxide – and the reduction in this damping can further accelerate warming.
Signs on the ground are also starting to worry. According to Rockstrom, there is evidence that the Earth system is “losing resilience” – that is, the same amount of warming could lead to a stronger response than before. He points, among other things, to the weakening of natural “buffering capacity” and feedbacks related to melting ice, shifting vegetation boundaries towards the poles and changes in cloudiness. (iiasa.ac.at)
Why we talk about acceleration – and what it means for policy
One of the claims that is receiving attention is the acceleration in the rate of warming: According to a report in Inside Climate News, warming has increased from about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2014 to about 0.26 degrees Celsius per decade in the last decade. The same article also notes a reduction in carbon absorption in tropical, temperate and boreal forests, as well as a decrease in the Earth’s light reflectance (“the Earth is getting darker”) – processes that increase heat absorption.
At the same time, James Hansen claimed in an update he published that a transition to a warm phase in the tropical Pacific Ocean could push for new temperature records in the coming years, and presented scenarios in which crossing the 2°C threshold above the pre-industrial period is approaching in the coming decades.
The reality on the ground also provides “warning signs”: the beginning of 2026 was accompanied by heat waves and severe fires in the Southern Hemisphere, alongside expert assessments that an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat is related to the long-term warming trend.
The implication, according to the researchers, is that the debate is not just “how much will we warm by 2100,” but whether we are close to thresholds that will weaken humanity’s ability to control the overall trajectory. Inside Climate News quotes scientists as warning that in some systems – such as ice sheets – collapse processes could continue even if the average temperature “stabilizes,” because internal dynamics have already begun.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
