As Hurricane Milton battered the coast of Florida, conspiracy theories abounded, claiming that the forces controlling the weather were orchestrating the destruction. The researchers explain why people cling to these beliefs in the face of increasing natural disasters.
By Ivan Dinnick, Research Fellow, Psychology, University of Nottingham and Daniel Jolley, Lecturer in Social Psychology, University of Nottingham
Hurricane Milton hit the west coast of Florida on October 9 and was the second strongest to hit the state in just two weeks after Hurricane Helen.
While most people looked to meteorologists for explanations, a vocal minority remained skeptical, suggesting that the hurricanes were created on purpose, that Florida's climate is being manipulated or that perhaps the hurricanes were targeted at Republican voters.
Such ideas are not new. As psychologists, we investigate the roots of conspiracy theories, and find that they often arise after natural disasters. Investigating these theories is crucial as extreme weather events are expected to become more severe and frequent.
Conspiracy theories explain important events by attributing them to the secret actions of a small and powerful group. If we take a step back from this psychological definition, we see something surprising.
If conspiracy theories explain events as the actions of a small group, then they should only apply to events where the influence of such a group is likely.
For example, faking the moon landing would have required NASA to create an elaborate set, costumes, actors, and maintain secrecy. Although the theory is unlikely, it is conceivable that humans could design sets, create costumes, and act. However, climate-based conspiracy theories are not fit this pattern just as easily.
Unlike movie sets or staged events, humans do not control the climate directly. While individual clouds can be seeded to encourage rain, an entire hurricane is too large and too powerful for human technology to affect. This makes climate conspiracy theories less likely, because the climate is beyond the direct control that the other conspiracies depend on.
After Hurricane Helen, Donald Trump made several false claims, including that the government is "doing everything in its power not to help people in Republican areas." Eric S. Lesser / EPA
Why do people turn to conspiracies about the weather?
People have a basic need to feel safe and protected in their environment. If climate change is real, it presents an existential threat, causing some of the public to dismiss it in favor of conspiracy theories that preserve their sense of security.
In addition, people crave control and the ability to influence their environment. When confronted with the uncontrollable nature of climate change, they tend to embrace conspiracy theories as a means of regaining a sense of control. Recent psychological research has shifted focus from large-scale conspiratorial beliefs, such as climate crisis denial, to macro-level beliefs about local natural disasters.
The first psychological study in this field looked at a large tornado outbreak in the US Midwest in 2019 and found that the people most affected by the outbreak were more likely to believe that the tornadoes were controlled by the government. What explained this belief was the fact that the victims of the tornadoes felt that they had no control over their lives.
Next, another study asked participants to imagine that they lived in a fictional country called Nebuloria. Half of them were told that there might be natural disasters in the near future and they should take precautions for their safety, while the others were told that these disasters are rare and that there is no need to worry.
Participants were asked about a variety of conspiracy beliefs, such as whether the trails left by airplanes are "proof of weather control." Results showed that those in the high-risk scenario were more likely to believe in conspiracies.
What explained this increase in conspiratorial beliefs was the sense of existential threat experienced by the high-risk participants. This means that when people feel vulnerable due to environmental risks, they turn to conspiracies to regain a sense of control, even when the threats are beyond their reach.
A circle that feeds itself
It may seem intuitive that if you don't believe in something, you won't act as if it is true. Therefore, if you don't believe climate change is real, you won't act accordingly. Indeed, a large and growing body of psychological research supports this.
The more people believe in climate conspiracy beliefs, the less they believe in the scientific consensus on man-made climate change, the less concerned they are about the environment, and the less they trust the scientists who produce the evidence.
These beliefs do not remain abstract. The more people believe in climate conspiracies, the less likely they are to take steps to mitigate climate change. Studies have shown that mere exposure to climate change conspiracies is enough to decrease the desire to sign a petition in support of environmental policies.
This has serious consequences. First, if people don't believe in climate change, they won't take action, which will accelerate its progress. Second, as climate change accelerates, natural disasters multiply. As we have already seen, an increase in natural disasters leads to an increase in conspiratorial beliefs, creating a negative cycle that feeds itself.
Studies show that natural disasters can stimulate conspiratorial thinking about unrelated events, which harms democratic engagement, public health and social solidarity. In short, climate conspiracy theories can have a negative impact on many areas beyond the climate issue itself.
what can be done?
There are reasons for optimism that certain interventions that foster analytical thinking or a critical approach can reduce conspiratorial beliefs. For example, exposing people to scientific thinking that challenges the assumptions behind the corona conspiracies significantly reduced belief in these theories. In addition, better use of resources and skills to deal with natural disasters can reduce conspiracy theories.
If we do not act against climate change, the increase in natural disasters will likely lead to an increase in conspiracy theories. The risk is high, but with well-designed interventions, we can break this vicious cycle.
For the article in THE CONVERSATION
More of the topic in Hayadan:
