The Nobel Prizes are announced at the beginning of October every year, and about a month before, rumors, predictions and conjectures are spread about the identity of the candidates and the chances of winning. In recent years, using innovative data analysis tools, forecasting experts manage to predict with high probability the potential winners, even if they do not win in the exact same year. Among the names that were mentioned - Prof. Rafi Bistritzer from Uni' Tel Aviv and of course again the name of Prof. Yakir Aharonov
The most famous in the field of predictions is a company Clarify, which mainly specializes in trading analysis and artificial intelligence, and every year publishes its predictions for Nobel laureates. Last week, the company published a statement in which it stated that it had put together a list for 2024, which includes 22 researchers from various fields with high chances of winning the prestigious award. In the past, the company's predictions have proven themselves impressively, with 75 researchers who appeared on its lists winning the award, sometimes several years after appearing on them. The company's forecasts are based on an analysis of approximately 61 million studies written since 1970, of which only 0.01% of the articles, those that have been cited over 2,000 times, are selected as the basis for their evaluation.
This year's Clarivate list also features an Israeli researcher, Prof. Rafi Bistritzer from Tel Aviv University, alongside Pablo Herrero from MIT and Alan MacDonald from the University of Texas, for discovering the "magic angle" in graphene surfaces. The magic angle, about 1.1 degrees, describes the orientation between two graphene surfaces, which allows them to behave as a superconductor at low temperatures. The prize intended for the researchers for discovering the magic angle is the prize in physics, and if that happens, we may foresee the first Israeli to win the prize in physics, precisely in such a challenging year for the country.
In addition, several other potential candidates for the award were named. Among the notables on Clarivate's list are David Deutsch of the University of Oxford and Peter Shore of MIT, thanks to the development of algorithms for quantum computers. In my opinion, the progress in these areas may not yet be sufficient to award them the prize, since quantum computers have not yet realized their potential. Another candidate is Christopher Gerber from the Institute for Nanoscience in Switzerland, for his contribution to the development of atomic microscopy.
At the same time, in scientific forums and gambling sites, the names of other researchers appear as potential candidates. Among the names mentioned is Federico Capso, who along with other researchers developed the Quantum Cascade Laser, which produces a wide range of light waves in the infrared range and is currently used in industry for gas monitoring and medical tests. Peter Zoller is nominated for developing quantum simulations, and John Ya for developing precise quantum clocks based on photon lattice architecture. In addition to the new proposals, the names of Yakir Aharonov and Denis Boehm returned again, for the Aharonov-Bohem effect, which describes the effect of an electromagnetic field on charged particles even if they are outside the field of its direct influence. Aharonov, an emeritus researcher from Tel Aviv University, was previously proposed as a candidate for the Nobel Prize, but in my opinion, arguments about who was the first to discover the effect and how well it was experimentally proven prevented him from winning the prize in the past.
Clarivate also published a list of researchers in other scientific fields. In chemistry, David Becker from the University of Washington appears together with John Jumper and Demis Hesbis from Google Deep Mind for their contribution in predicting protein structures. I am not a researcher in the field, but it is clear to many that this invention has tremendous potential in the medical world as well. Last year at the conference of the Israeli physicist community, a researcher from Google Deep Mind revealed the research findings. The results were certainly interesting but there is still a long way to go. The artificial intelligence that they developed predicts that chemical molecules do not necessarily make sense, and it also suffers from a few false patterns. The technology is probably not yet ripe to bring about a revolution in the field of medicine and perhaps that is why it is premature to declare them as winners.
Next to them, Kazunari Doms from the University of Tokyo was published thanks to the development of photocatalysts that make it possible to break down water into hydrogen and oxygen with the help of sunlight. This development allowed the invention of devices that are powered by water only. Also mentioned were Roberto Kerr from Princeton University and Michael Parinello from ETH Zurich for developing a computational method for predicting molecular dynamics.
The scientific community also speculates about the identity of the Nobel laureates. Survey Conducted by Chemistry Views asked 600 researchers who they believe will win this year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry. This year, the American biochemist Chi-Hui Wong from San Diego, known in the community for his methods of carbohydrate synthesis, won by a considerable margin. From a more general perspective, about 54 percent of voters believe that a biochemist will win this year, 44 percent believe that the researcher will come from the United States and almost 92 percent believe that the winner will be a man. Chi Wong does fit this profile. Also, Cell magazine published Opinions of three researchers regarding the identity of Nobel laureates in physiology and chemistry. Some agreed with Clarivate but also raised the possibility that David Kalnerman and Shankar Belsubramanian developed a method for relatively inexpensive genomic sequencing. The researchers also mentioned Zelig Ascher Moitzman along with three other researchers for developing a treatment for autoimmune diseases.
In the field of physiology and medicine, Clarivate's list includes Jonathan Cohen and Helen Hobbs of the University of Texas for genetic research that will explain how the body processes fats (lipids). Thanks to their research, new drugs were developed for heart diseases. Also on the list are Anne Graybill from MIT, Okihide Hikusuke from the National Institutes of Health of Maryland and also Wolfram Schulz from Kathleen for researching the basal ganglia, a part of the brain responsible for movement, behavior and the development of new abilities. In addition, Devor Salter from the Max Planck Institute in Germany, and Azim Sorani from Cambridge were mentioned for their research in the field of epigenetics and mammalian development.
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