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The forecast: continuous and deadly heat waves throughout the summer

New research points to an alarming future increase in extreme heat waves, which could increase mortality tenfold. "One heat wave is expected to cause excess mortality equal to the number of deaths in road accidents in a year"

Summer at the beach in Tel Aviv. Illustration: depositphotos.com
Summer at the beach in Tel Aviv. Illustration: depositphotos.com

The current winter season seems particularly short. It is already the beginning of February and it seems that the amount of rain is particularly low, with the temperatures considerably higher than the average for the period. In a new study, conducted under the leadership of Dr. Assaf Hochman from the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University together with Prof. Joachim Pinto and Marcel Wedler, researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany, it was found that the Israeli summer in the coming years will include extreme heat waves, which will be 7 times more frequent and longer 3 times compared to today. According to the findings, which were recently published in the leading journal Science of the Total Environment, the heat waves may even lead to a jump in the excess direct mortality of humans up to 10 times on an annual average.

Since the industrial revolution began, the world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees, which increases the number and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, droughts and storms. Many studies have already proven that the main cause of this is climate change, where the general assumption is that human activity significantly increases the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "The symptoms are already felt today all over the world, and in the Israeli region in particular, with the lack of rainy days and the unusual abundance of sunny days," explains Dr. Hochman, a senior climatologist at the Hebrew University, and adds: "In the near future this trend may increase, so we set out to check how these processes will affect the frequency, intensity, and length of heat waves in the Israeli summer - as well as the mortality levels in Israel."

A climate diagram describing the frequency and duration of heat waves, along with the excess mortality:

High resolution climate models

Using a number of advanced high-resolution climate models, the team of researchers characterized the current heat waves and those expected until the year 2080. Later, they compared the findings with the data of the Central Bureau of Statistics regarding daily mortality in Israel. Dr. Hochman shares: "We saw that the excess direct mortality from heat waves in the Israeli summer currently stands at about 30 people on average every year." 

According to the most conservative scenario, the research findings suggest that this number may jump at least 10 times in the future, when one heat wave is expected to cause an excess death equal to the number of road accident fatalities per year. Moreover, it was found that future heat waves are expected to be more frequent and longer - and may last throughout the summer season. The researchers explain that this does not mean that we have to wait 60 years and there cannot be such heat waves already in the coming years, but it was found that towards the end of the 21st century, a very large number of deaths per year is expected for this reason directly.

According to the research team, the governments in the Mediterranean region, as well as the Israeli government, must change policies and invest greater efforts in monitoring and dealing with extreme weather events, with an emphasis on prolonged and life-threatening heat waves. "We believe that the health data should be opened to the scientific community so that we can continue a closer cooperation between the academy and the relevant government ministries", concludes Dr. Hochman.

The academic article

More of the topic in Hayadan:

10 תגובות

  1. The link I provided is not a link to a "scientific article", but a simple demonstration of how the expired threats are removed from the web (and apparently also from the consciousness of the brains that consume them) and replaced with newer ones.

    Your response is a practical demonstration of disqualifying a legitimate communication channel using an empty and typical left-wing argument.

  2. In view of the problems that are probably plaguing the site, and in view of the fact that my message still hasn't gone up, after a day and a half, I decided to publish this incredibly amusing thing that I just found:

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/15/greta-thunberg-reportedly-deletes-grim-2018-tweet-about-climate-change/

    You will continue to perpetuate your wretched intimidation, and erase the old ones, in order to arouse anxiety and fear and feelings of self-blame among the younger generations' while you feel "scientific" and "superior" and scatter empty signals of propriety everywhere.

  3. Yehuda, the difference of 10 degrees is roughly the temperature difference between Jerusalem and Eilat. We are "a little" far from it. Actually, very far from it. I'm afraid that the incessant intimidation in the media and the atmosphere of constant crisis (and now also on the political side) have raised your blood pressure and hysteria, so that you feel completely private heatwaves. My friendly advice is that you drink a glass of cold water from the fridge. Make a compress of ice cubes, and permanently close the radio and television: they have stopped providing balanced and verified information that is not tainted by blatant political and economic interests anyway.

    And in conclusion, rest your mind: the universe will not end in two years, and this prediction will also be swept into the dustbin of scaremongering like Greta Thunberg's scaremongering five years ago, Al Gore's scaremongering 17 years ago that "the world will end in 12 years" (this is also the guy who "invented the The Internet", according to him). And in a host of catastrophic predictions from the 80's and 70's and in general.

  4. It's already March, it's cold and it's raining. When will you focus on reality and not false predictions?

  5. You really haven't scared us in a long time.
    But we got used to it. And it is already known that everything is a sin.

  6. "Many thoughts are in a man's heart, and God's counsel will be established."
    Science is not accurate at all and I am not at all impressed by their predictions, they were wrong in the past and they will be wrong now.
    Since the destruction of the Temple, prophecy has ended in the people of Israel, and it has been given to fools, i.e. the soothsayers and scientists today!!!!!!

  7. They keep saying that the temperature only increased by 1.5 degrees, but those with eyes in their head know that this is not true at all because the temperature has already managed to rise between 4-10 degrees more than the average for each season on many days of the year and I think that in two or three years there will no longer be life on earth

  8. It is better for the State of Israel to focus on planning and implementing essential measures to deal with burning and life-threatening carriers, instead of dealing with a vague and unclear task like "dealing with life-threatening heat waves" - what will they do? Will ice cubes be distributed to citizens? Scare the people even more with apocalyptic predictions? (Oh, that's already done: every random rain event turns into a storm in the news releases).

    So here are some alternatives:
    Replacement of thousands of buildings from falling in the earthquake near us for the worse.
    Treating floods and encouraging the seepage of runoff water into the groundwater.
    Encouraging a transition from private transportation to public transportation, paving bicycle paths and clearing sidewalks of obstacles for pedestrians.

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