Following and because of global warming, by 2050 there will be about a billion people subject to disputes and struggles related to rivers, and this only in Africa
Following global warming, it can be predicted that by the year 2050 there will be about a billion people involved in frictions and struggles related to rivers, and this in Africa alone. The Renaissance Dam project in Ethiopia (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project) is a prominent example of this, when its operation arouses tensions between Ethiopia, for which the dam is used to generate electricity and develop irrigation systems, and Egypt and Sudan, who fear damage to the flow of the Nile, which is a source of life for them.
Hundreds of rivers flow between countries, and the distribution of water in them can be a source of cooperation or a cause of friction, depending on the conditions the historical, cultural and economic. However, due to global warming and climate change, river flow is decreasing, And the tension between the water users increases.
in a study conducted, water systems of transboundary rivers have been identified where, if there is no joint management, about a billion people will live in areas where there is a high risk of violent friction.
To date, cooperation has overcome friction But because of global warming and climate change, river flow is decreasing And the tension between the women who use river water is increasing.
In Africa, where the population is growing, there are more than sixty transboundary rivers, where in most cases there are no regulated agreements for the use of water. The combination of warming, climate change and population growth constitute an extensive ground for friction in the formation and flow basins of the rivers, at least some of which can be predicted and tried to the extent possible.
In the study they were identified water systems of transboundary rivers in which If there is no joint management, about a billion people will live in areas with a high risk of violent friction.
Research Combined the risk of disputes following projects of dams and hydro-electric plants against the social and economic effects, when it is clear that a lack of cooperation between countries leads to the loss of profits and benefits that would have been produced to a degree of joint activity, including adaptation to climate change, environmental protection and social and economic improvement.
Added to this is a situation in which without agreements on the distribution of water the tension between countries on water issues spills over into other sectors and into strained relations on interregional political and economic issues.
In Africa, about 4.5 billion people live along common rivers. It turns out that in "business as usual" mode That is, without significant changes and without comprehensive agreements between countries on the joint use of river water, a situation will arise in which about a billion people will live in areas at high risk of violent disputes. The danger of violent friction in river basins in Africa and Asia is increasing because of a combination of frequent changes in flows in water-thirsty regions and because of the dependence of countries downstream on the actions of countries upstream.
This is the case with Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Existing initiatives and plans for the construction of additional dams will endanger the amount of water in the rivers and cause increased friction, thus in many rivers that have dams on them they will harm the climate in the area of the dam and the supply of water to the population downstream. Added to this is the danger of frequent and prolonged periods of drought that will cause a lack of water in many rivers mainly in Asia and Africa, not only down the Nile but also down rivers in Somalia, Kenya and even Ethiopia, while taking into account the natural environment and the changing climate conditions.
The study refers mainly to Africa, which despite its dry image has a lot of water and with cooperation between countries and proper distribution, water can be provided to the majority of the population and to most of the needs.
The challenges and dangers in common river basins must be included in regional-wide plans to avoid risk to the population and violent frictions between countries, taking into account the natural environment and the changing climate conditions. In our region, despite the development of economical irrigation methods, desalination and reuse of water, it is worth remembering that we are in a semi-desert area that is getting drier. At the same time, the population of the region has grown to such proportions that it is clear that without extensive and close regional cooperation, we will once again end up in wars over water.
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