The researchers of the Biological Institute studied the rate of spread of the corona virus in the community, and it turned out that it increased from R0=0.5 to 2.18, meaning that each patient infects more than 2 other people
Israel contained the spread of the Corona virus, and then the holiday of Purim came. This is according to a study by the researchers of the biological institute, including the director general of the institute, who studied the rate of spread of the corona virus in the community, and it turned out that it increased from R0=0.5 to 2.14, which means that each patient infects more than 2 other people, or in other words a steep increase. In other words Others, the decision of large parts of the ultra-orthodox public to ignore instructions.
In a study submitted for publication and written by Ziv Kluizner, Eyal Patel, Eitan Hirsch and the director of the institute Shmuel Shapira. The researchers developed a model of the dynamics of the spread of epidemics and used the epidemiological investigations conducted by the Ministry of Health, and it became clear to them, as the article shows, that the results are similar.
The researchers separated the data related to patients who were infected abroad from those who were infected in the community. It turns out that for three weeks the State of Israel was in a state of controlled epidemic both according to the model and according to the epidemiological analysis. The negative change in the trend occurred as a result of the Purim holiday parties. Although the Eid al-Fitr celebrations throughout the country were canceled, many They attended private parties in a closed space, which greatly increased the number of patients. In particular, there was a mass infection among the densely populated ultra-orthodox population. Some of them, by the way, refused to listen to the instructions for a long time. Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky forbade the cancellation of Torah study. Even in certain Chabads (as can be seen in the spread in Brooklyn) the token did not fall, and they held large celebrations on Purim.
background:
"Since its emergence, the impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health challenge appears to be the most severe for respiratory viruses since the 1 H1N1918 (Spanish flu) pandemic."
"In the absence of effective vaccine or biomedical treatment, the basic rules of public health measures have not changed, namely social distancing and personal hygiene."
"In this study, we present the results of the epidemiological data analysis and modeling of the first month since the beginning of the outbreak in Israel. The data analyzed in this study were obtained from the epidemiological investigation reports published by the Ministry of Health. In addition to data analysis, we present an extended deterministic cell model and simulations of disease outbreak scenarios that emphasize the quarantine and isolation policy considering their effectiveness.
The research findings
We analyze and observe a sudden change from a controlled epidemic regime (effective reproduction number R_0 on the order of half) to an exponential growth regime (R_0 = 2.18). In light of the policy makers' decisions and actual public behavior. We discuss below three different model scenarios of quarantine efficiency: high efficiency, medium efficiency and low efficiency.
Conclusions:
The first lesson in Israel is that there is no possibility of compromising on the directive of social distancing. Even before the start of the epidemic in Israel, early but determined decisions were made by policy makers to cancel flights from areas affected by Covid-19 and limit public gatherings. These indices lowered the value of the effective reproductive number (R_0) effectively in the first two weeks. Our analysis shows that one particular holiday in Israel, the Purim holiday, shifted the curve of occurrence from a controlled regime to an exponential growth regime. This result indicates that even a brief lapse in public response can dramatically affect public health during epidemic outbreaks.
At the same time, the spokesperson of the Prime Minister's Office reported yesterday that Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with the director of the Institute for Biological Research Prof. Shmuel Shapira and heard from him updates on the progress in the institute's research and development efforts on the topic of pre-vaccination and antibodies.
The director of the institute, Prof. Shapira, pointed out to Netanyahu that significant progress has been made in planning the pre-vaccination and preparations are now being made for a model to start the experiment on animals.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
- Pluristem treated the first three corona patients in Israel with stem cells as part of compassionate care
- Research: The coronavirus spreads quickly and often before people have symptoms
- A researcher from the Hebrew University: the new virus has changed its face compared to Sars and will be difficult to neutralize
15 תגובות
Israel
This is what happens when you let the Minister of Creation watch over us...
God - the ultra-Orthodox lover is he or not?
Beit Shamai Gores: No. That's why he sent the corona virus in their homes, mercifully.
Beit Hillel makes it difficult: love. Let them start now when not all the beds are occupied and there are ventilators.
Shamai blunts Hillel's teeth: And what will happen in a month when secularists get sick and it turns out that all the souls for whom they paid with the best of their tax money are occupied by the ultra-orthodox people who didn't pay?
Wonderful are the ways of God.
Dori Rechnitz
The ultra-Orthodox have a lot of blame for the situation in Israel, just as they have a lot of blame for what is happening in New York.
This is true in many religious communities. The aversion to knowledge is a terrible thing these days.
Maybe it's time to stop idolatry?
Father, I preceded you and answered this yesterday at 9:39. A matter of overcrowding and returning from abroad.
If there was no problem with the ultra-Orthodox, why did Netanyahu impose a blockade on Bnei Brak?
And once again, the roots are ignored, and they continue to deal with the results.
Purim, bats, pangolin, Bnei Brak?
insignificant.
In order to get to the cause of any phenomenon, you need to know where its root is.
It usually takes us decades to reach them.
And what is the cause of the corona virus? Just like any other phenomenon.
We see the world in action.
We ignore thoughts and intentions.
What are we made of? Stardust.
A little hint….and think about it.
Another thing,
Vint and voila.. let's go.
But the website here usually mocks every supposedly scientific assumption that is published, while raising as a miracle the importance of accuracy down to the smallest details.
But not when it comes to the ultra-Orthodox.. On Purim there was no instruction not to celebrate a party..
That's why it's a bit of a hole that the importance of accuracy suddenly disappears for her
I live in a secular neighborhood in Jerusalem (as much as you can say about a neighborhood in Jerusalem that is secular...) and in every corner there was a Purim party. The neighborhood peace group exploded with ticket sales from one party to another.
It is important to mention that there were still no instructions not to gather, only the large parties that do not characterize the sector were canceled. Why just get dirty? For the Purim parties, this was the great tragedy of the entire country. There is also no one to blame because no one was watching, we are wise after the fact.
The test of whether the infection rate among ultra-Orthodox is increasing or not should be tested from the last week onwards, (where the rules were strict) since just at one ultra-Orthodox family Purim party there is a crazy potential for mass spread (of the virus, yes? haha). The ultra-Orthodox way of life of praying and studying in crowded rooms (until the abolition of the 10 person limit) also significantly expanded the spread of infection in the sector.
Let's say a secular guy gets infected at a Purim party, returns to a house of about 5 people (and I'm flattered) compared to an ultra-orthodox guy who gets infected at a Purim meal and returns to a house of about 10 people on average (I'm stingy) - the percentage of infections will undoubtedly be higher, but following the same behavior.
Therefore, linking Purim and the ultra-Orthodox is libel, and if the ultra-Orthodox were a private individual, it would undoubtedly be possible to sue the author of the article for libel, defamation, and slander.
Some of the commenters here completely ignore information that supports these things: the amount of people infected in ultra-Orthodox cities and in ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods is immeasurably greater than the amount of people infected in secular cities.
This is not an exaggeration by the ultra-Orthodox - these are facts
"In other words, the decision of large sections of the ultra-Orthodox public to ignore instructions."
This is an unnecessary addition and really not necessarily correct. There were many parties in the secular sector as well (students for example) and in any case more than a hundred people were still allowed to gather.
What is significant about Purim is that the population "mixes" because you go to a Purim meal with people you don't meet on a daily basis. It must be remembered that a shared meal is even more contagious than a party, because everyone is sitting relatively close and there is no strict hygiene of the central dishes.
The reason there are many infected in ultra-Orthodox society is because there are many ultra-Orthodox who returned from abroad for Passover, and because they live in an extremely high density that probably did not allow for real isolation of those returning from abroad.
How do you jump to "scientific" conclusions like that?
After all, not enough tests were done in the general population. There are many who returned from abroad and did not go into isolation as required. Many from Italy.
A few undiagnosed patients went around and got infected. As we saw in retrospect in the epidemiological investigations.
But instead of summarizing the matter here, let's lay the blame on a large public.
I'm not saying that they have no responsibility, but the wording here in the article puts all the responsibility on them. In other words: wild incitement.
Too bad the scientist doesn't know Hebrew
And it's a shame that the research is so poor.
The statistics are not reliable in such a small number of samples, especially before Purim.
And how do travelers from abroad change the infection rate in Israel? They increase the number of carriers but not the infection rate.
And so much more nonsense to publish.
Everyone is wise in hindsight. This is a complete failure that will dramatically lower the quality of life in the country. There is no doubt that the bodies of science in the Ministry of Health and not only failed to understand the reality and convey the message to the decision makers.
It is doubtful whether it is appropriate to allocate so many resources to science if in the end its effectiveness in preventing disasters is so small.
On Purim there were no instructions to close schools, as I recall, therefore the hypothesis that the ultra-Orthodox spread on Purim should be deleted... In Modiin after Purim, an entire neighborhood went into isolation New York, Milan, Northern Italy and all foreign vacationers to Israel who brought the virus with them are examples of where the disease spread in crowded places. No need for fuel…
The author of the article is being hypocritical, even though it is not written in the article and gives the impression that his personal opinions are part of the article.