Is the US about to lose its scientific preeminence?

A study published in Nature finds that the US continues to lead in areas such as biomedical research, but China's continued investment in materials science, engineering and physical sciences poses a significant challenge to US dominance. The upcoming election could determine the direction of science funding and immigration policy in the US, Monday Critical issues for maintaining its scientific status

On October 23, 2024, the journal Nature published an article focusing on the scientific status of the United States and the challenges it faces, especially in light of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections. The article notes that the United States maintains leadership in fields such as biology and medicine, while China is gaining strength in fields such as engineering, chemistry and materials science - from artificial intelligence to nuclear fusion. In these areas, China has overtaken the United States in the number of most cited articles, especially in engineering and chemistry.

The article notes that American science has achieved impressive achievements in recent years, including the highest number of Nobel medals in science in the world, the development of vaccines for Corona in 2020, and the breaking of boundaries in fusion science and artificial intelligence by American startups. The US invests more than $2022 trillion a year in research and development, and its laboratories attract researchers from all over the world. In 923, it invested $30 billion in R&D, about 812% of global investment, while China invested $XNUMX billion.

However, there are concerns that the US is losing its lead in many areas, especially to China. Government investment in research is at its lowest levels since 1997. The private sector has stepped up its efforts, but may not be able to sufficiently support basic science research.

The main indicators for comparison:

1. The number of scientific publications - in 2016, China overtook the United States in the number of scientific and engineering articles.
2. . PhD graduates** - in 2019, China overtook the United States in the number of PhDs in science and engineering.
3. International patents – in 2021, China led in the number of international patent applications.

In 2020, China passed the United States in the percentage of most cited articles in the world. However, there is concern about "local bias," with Chinese researchers disproportionately citing studies from their own country.

The results of the elections will have a decisive effect on the continuation of the process or its halting

The upcoming elections in the United States will decide not only the identity of the next president but also the future scientific and economic trends of the country. Researchers and industry leaders fear that a change in government could dramatically affect the direction of scientific funding, immigration policy and the ability to cooperate with international actors. Special emphasis is placed on the fear of uncertainty regarding the funding of major scientific organizations and the policy towards international researchers. The elections are expected to determine the structure of political support in critical R&D areas and influence the degree of government involvement in innovative technological areas such as artificial intelligence and green energy.

1. The effect of government policy on federal funding - the upcoming elections may affect funding levels and commitments to support the fields of science and technology, as can be seen in legislation such as the CHIPS and Science Act.

2. Immigration policy and its impact on science - the policy towards foreign researchers may determine the ability of the United States to attract international talent, especially in engineering and computer science.

3. The effects of political changes - renewing the policies of previous administrations, such as the China Initiative, could increase political polarization and affect international scientific cooperation.

4. Influence on the budgeting of science organizations - the composition of the houses of Congress may influence the budgeting of research and development (R&D).

Research collaborations:

While the United States remains a significant global player, the number of collaborations between American and Chinese researchers has declined since 2020, while collaborations between China and the UK have increased. This is partly due to the political tensions and the fear of intellectual property rights and security.

The US National Academies recommended that government efforts be consolidated to attract international talent and improve scientific education in the country.

### Summary:

The article presents a complex picture of the competition between the United States and China in science.

—

**source**: 

Van Noorden, Richard, and Jeff Tollefson. "How Long Will the US Be a Science Superpower?" *Nature* 634 (October 24, 2024): 770-774. 

More of the topic in Hayadan:More of the topic in Hayadan:

• Science summarized Trump's position against Harris' position on scientific issues. Trump wants to damage basic science as well, Harris - to his predecessor
• Four ways AI could be misused in the 2024 election
• Science under siege: Nature reveals how the Trump administration abused the Environmental Protection Agency
• Trump has negatively affected the environment in many ways, and has also affected other populist leaders