Astronomical observations from Earth will probably not be possible in 2050, due to vapor trails from airplanes and climate change
The news agencies, the Walla!
The future of astronomy is in doubt due to climate change and vapor trails left by the many airplanes every day. The vapor trails from airplanes, along with climate change, will increase the cloud cover in the atmosphere, which will make it difficult to have observations towards space.
According to a new study, the vapor trails that the planes leave in the air, may merge with clouds, and may make identifications difficult when watching. Professor Gary Gilmore, from the University of Cambridge, said that if the policy of cheap flights, which leave condensation trails in the sky, continues, the era of stargazing from Earth will end sooner than experts predicted.
The timeline on which the forecast is built is based on the increase in the number of flights in the world. The BBC reported that the calculations made by the professor are part of the preparations for a project called the "largest telescope" (ELT) of the European Union. The future telescope is expected to be used for observations of celestial bodies close to Earth and to search for extremely distant stars in the universe.
Gilmore said that it is already clear that the lifespan of the telescopes in use on Earth is not infinite, and that the time when the use of the instruments will come to an end depends on the warming of the Earth. According to him, there are two factors that affect the time left to use telescopes: climate change, which increases the amount of clouds in the atmosphere around the Earth, and cheap flights.
Gilmore claims that the planes emit vapor trails during their flight. Due to the increase in the number of flights, the amount of vapor emitted is very large, and so, if the predictions are indeed correct, within 40 years there will be no use for the telescopes on Earth. Gilmore added that "Either you give up discounted flights to Mallorca, or astronomy. You can't have both."
The favorite sites for astronomical observation are also tourist sites
Feather clouds. When the vapor trails of the planes remain in the sky for many hours it is difficult to distinguish them from feather clouds (Photo: Shlomi Magon)
A glacier that broke off from the frozen continent. Optimal conditions for astronomical observation (Photo: Reuters) Climate change is also expected to increase the rate of water evaporation into the atmosphere, which in turn will contribute to the general cloudiness. The growth of the cloud cover will affect both the optical aspect of stargazing, and the stargazing using infrared radiation, which will have to be done from space. Astronomy using radio waves will continue to be from Earth.
Vapor trails usually do not interfere with astronomical observations, but given extreme weather conditions, the trails may look like real clouds. Holger Pedersen, a Danish astronomer who studied the field of aircraft vapor trails, explained that the air trails can be identified when they are "fresh", and then the observation can be stopped. But when the trails remain in the sky for a long time, and do not fade, they become something that is very difficult to distinguish from feather clouds.
Another astronomer from Germany agreed with Prof. Gilmore's statement, but claimed that the effect of the trails is limited due to the fact that astronomers observe a limited space, and not the entire sky.
Prof. Gilmore opposes this claim and says on the other hand that there are places where there are less clouds, where the telescopes really are, but there is no place in the atmosphere where there are no clouds and no airplanes. According to him, local laws have already been enacted around central observation points that limit the airspace and do not allow aircraft to fly in them.
Gilmore also noted that certain observation points, such as the Canary Islands, the Hawaiian Islands and South America are also popular tourist destinations, and the number of flights to them is only expected to increase in the future.
As of now, it has not yet been determined where the giant telescope will be located, but despite the difficulties with access, it will most likely be placed in Antarctica. The glacial region is relatively clear of clouds, and its climate is different from the climate of the other continents on Earth. And more importantly, the continent's skies are free of commercial flights.
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