A special interview for the science website
Following the two painful failures last week: the launch of the Israeli Ofek 6 satellite and the crash of the American space probe Genesis, we asked for the opinion of the outgoing director of the Israel Space Agency, Avi Har-Evan
What is the failure rate in such a launch?
Depends on who. When the satellites are already in space the percentage of success when the satellite is in space for it to operate is very high. There is already enough knowledge that if there is a malfunction in the satellite it can be repaired remotely and there have already been cases. On the other hand, the failure rate for launchers is very high, and no one has benefited from this, starting with the Japanese who recently lost a launcher worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and the French whose Ariane 5 crashed several times, the Americans, the Russians and the Chinese. We also joined this club of failures. Whoever launches satellites, and the launcher has a malfunction. The launcher is built from a fault, the crisis is built from many parts, and no matter how reliable they may be, statistically something can always happen, happened and happened.
What exactly happened in the third stage that prevented the ignition of one of the engines?
Stage three engine, so that it ignites - this is the engine that puts the final injection of the satellite in orbit. In order for this to be carried out, the third stage needs to be in a certain position in space in terms of direction, speed, because otherwise if the engine starts and the satellite is not in place, it can reach another place - get into the wrong orbit or hit the ground in an unwanted place. This is unfortunately as a result of some hardware malfunction, the third stage was not in the same place where the nominal data was as it should be. The laws according to which the engine should start worked as it should and prevented it from starting because if it had started it could have ended up somewhere else.
How long do you think it will take to build a new satellite?
The security system works according to a multi-year plan. They have a plan to build satellites and build launchers. Building satellites includes ordering components. There is a very detailed work plan. This is not a one-time event. It is not a matter of a few months but not many years either. I assume that in light of the malfunction and in light of the availability of budgets, certain changes will have to be made. The security system will sit down and decide what to do, whether to wait until the Ofek 7 satellite is launched in a few years, which should be much more sophisticated, or to build an intermediate satellite. This is a decision of the security system and I am not authorized to provide this data.
Is it not also possible to launch Ofek satellites as hitchhikers in the launches of larger satellites (sometimes in such launches they put extra weight on a dummy, and it is possible that such a hitchhiker can be cheaper).
To discount, surely it was to be discounted. As for the reliability, I don't know because there are always failures. To mention that the first Txat satellite was launched on a Russian launcher and was a failure. The point is that if you launch with an external launcher it is very difficult to dictate the schedule, the launch time and the route, and we have requirements that the route cover certain countries, and we can launch at special times to provide coverage at certain times and in strategic matters it is always advisable to be independent and not depend on other bodies . I assume that discussions will be held in the security system on this issue as well, considering all these parameters.
What is your impression of the mood of those involved in the craft?
The mood is always good when everything is fine and as soon as there is some kind of malfunction the mood goes down. This is a problem of leadership. If they manage to push the workers after the failure and from knowing the MLM workers, a factory where I worked for many years, I am sure that the leadership will know how to push them further and lead them in the further work.
A comparison with Genesis, which crashed a few days after Ofek 6, is also requested?
There we are talking about a quarter of a billion dollars spent in space for three years, and also there a very interesting hardware malfunction happened, when all the explosion bolts that were supposed to release the parachutes did not work, and here too there could be a problem that some signal was not sent as a result of a disruption in the logic. These signals to ignite those pyrotechnic bolts are also sent when the satellite is in a special position in space in terms of location, speed, direction, etc. It didn't happen and even now all the teams are sitting there and checking. It just shows that even bigger than us - even in such matters there are mistakes and I don't blame anyone there because it happened and can happen. We also remember those launches to Mars where, due to nonsensical errors such as working with different metric and inch dimensions, spacecraft crashed. it happened Murphy's Laws work all over the world
What is the next Israeli launch?
The members of the security system will have to decide. There is currently a fundraising for Amos 3. We have a launch that I hope the horizon will be ahead of - the launch of TAUVEX on an Indian launcher in 2006, and I hope that in 2008 we will launch the scientific satellite shared by us and the French, Venus, with Israel leading the project through the Israeli Space Agency.
