A new UN report states that the world's population will begin to decrease in 2080. The population of Israel, on the other hand, will continue to grow even after the end of the century
Our world is filling up, with population figures that continue to break new records and increasing density at every corner. Just two years ago, in November 2022, the world's population crossed a threshold 8 billion people. But now it seems that there is light at the end of the tunnel. In July 2024, it was published The new UN population report.
The report presents the most recent demographic forecasts of the organization, and contains some hopeful points regarding the future of humanity. At its center is the estimate that the world's population, which currently stands at 8.2 billion people, will reach its peak around the year 2080, when it will stand at 10.3 billion people The good news is that starting this year the world's population will start to decrease, while the forecast for 2100 is even lower. More than what was presented in the report released a decade ago, and will amount to 10.2 billion people (about 700 million less than what was expected a decade ago).
This is good news as it presents it Li Junhua, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs: "In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously expected, and we are also seeing faster declines in areas with high fertility. The earlier and lower peak is an encouraging sign. This may indicate a reduction in Environmental pressures resulting from human influence, due to lower overall consumption." Fewer people in the world is good news in view of the devastating effects of the climate crisis in increasing parts of the planet. It may give a glimmer of hope and encouragement to attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize additional damage that harms the living environment on Earth.
Fewer people means less environmental damage: less food demand, less water consumption, less greenhouse gas emissions.
Less pro and more
The report reviews the demographic situation of 237 countries and territories around the world. Demographic changes occur against the background of a variety of influencing factors, especially when it comes to intra-state changes. Increased life expectancy, immigration and the advancement of women's status are key factors, but the central and most influential factor is fertility (The number of births of a healthy baby per woman.) According to the report, in 2024 the global fertility was 2.25 Births per woman, more than one child per woman lower than the situation in 1990, when it stood at 3.31 births per woman.
Israel, on the other hand, is included in the list of countries that will continue with significant population growth until at least the year 2100. "The State of Israel can reach a state of 15 million inhabitants by the year 2050, an increase of about 5 million people in 30 years," explains Prof. Sergio Della-Pergola, a demographer and professor emeritus at the Hebrew University specializing in the demography of Israel and Diaspora Jewry. "For 30 years, fertility in Israel has increased, while in most places in the world it has decreased. Part of this is a desired increase in births thanks to the improving economic situation, and part is the growing weight of population groups with many children."
Already today, one in four people worldwide lives in a country whose population is shrinking. "The braking time is very long, we are talking about decades, but we are already there. Like a pendulum, as soon as it stops in one direction it starts to retreat in the opposite direction, and then it is very possible that there will be more deaths than births," Della-Pergola continues. Among the 63 countries that passed the record, you can find some of the largest countries in the world such as China, Germany and Russia. Spain, Italy and Japan are at the top of the list of countries with a small population. In these countries, without internal migration to them, the decline in population size would have occurred at a faster rate. Reducing the population may significantly affect the stability and development of the country's economy. The loss of working hands at the same time as the increase in life expectancy and the increase in spending on health and care for the elderly harm the economic development of the countries. In some cases, migrant workers from disadvantaged countries take the place of the shrinking and aging population in the local labor market. These data come against the background of the issue of immigration, which has been a central issue in the public discourse in recent decades.
Advancing the status of women
In contrast to the countries whose population size is decreasing, there are 126 countries that are expected to continue to grow until 2080 and beyond. Among them are giants such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States. The countries with the fastest population growth will be Angola, Congo, Niger, Central African Republic and Somalia. Some of them will even double their population by the year 2054. In general, it is possible to see a match between the socio-economic situation of each country and the demographic changes that apply there. Residents of the most developed countries tend to give birth to fewer children, while the situation in underdeveloped countries (with a significant representation of sub-Saharan countries) is the opposite.
In addition to this, the authors of the report raise several points for reference in the development of a policy to encourage the reduction of the global population. The most interesting of them is the advancement of status the woman and striving for equality between the sexes. Attempts to raise birth ages such as laws limiting the age of marriage, as well as encouraging women to go out to study and work will contribute significantly to reducing fertility. In this way, the economic, social, and even health status of women will improve.
A place worthy of life
However, it is possible that the Israeli story challenges the basic assumptions of the United Nations, when "convergence to low levels of birth is an assumption of the United Nations that does not take into account that there will be religious or ideological groups that will continue to want to have many children, similar to the ultra-Orthodox in our country. Not everyone will want to have children Two children in the whole world, and that is obviously a mistake," insists Prof. Della-Pergola. "Even if the rational consideration of encouraging the reduction of the population takes hold, it will take hold in groups that already have lower productivity."
These times, when many around the world are beginning to experience firsthand the effects of the climate crisis, are an opportunity to harness more and more people to the environmental fight. The report gives encouragement and hope that our children will get to live in a world where population density will decrease, for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century. Nevertheless, emphasizes Li Junhua: "Slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact resulting from each person's activity." Now we must, as individuals and as societies, make sure that that world is a worthy place to live in.
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