Assad's fall could also affect the Yarmouk River, which runs, among other things, through the Israel-Syria-Jordan border triangle. How do conflict zones affect ecosystems, which in turn affect the security of the state?
Most of the Middle East is a desert region, but don't let the lack of rainfall fool you - as the security situation shows, this is a turbulent and turbulent region. One of the dramatic events of recent times is the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Following it, IDF forces entered the buffer zone on the shared border, and according to reports in the Arab media, they also reached the catchment basin of one of the main water sources in the region: the Yarmouk River. It is impossible to know who will control the area in the future, but it is possible to say with certainty that this will have a significant impact on the flow of water in the river and on the residents in its vicinity.
Yarmouk River It forms part of the border between Syria and Jordan and between Israel and Jordan. It is the main tributary of the Jordan The southern and flows for a length of about 70 km – half of it in Israel and the rest in Syria and Jordan. Its strategic importance has been known for thousands of years: in the seventh century, the ""Battle of Yarmouk" The famous one where the Muslims fought the Byzantines; in modern times, they were built near it Rails and bridges For the Ottoman Railway; andPinchas Rotenberg He built the power plant in Yubolu to use the flow of water to generate electrical energy.
The Yarmuk today
"The Yarmouk is a relatively important source of water for the residents of southern Syria, but its main importance is for the Kingdom of Jordan. It is the source of the Jordanian 'national carrier' - the Abdullah Canal," explains Dr. David Katz, a senior lecturer at the School of Environment at the University of Haifa who specializes, among other things, in water resources management and transboundary waters.
For a country like Jordan, which suffers from water shortages The second most severe in the worldThis is a critical issue.
UN definition For water shortage Hamor is 500 cubic meters of water per person per year – in Jordan, each person has one hundred cubic meters of water available per year. According to Katz, there is Water agreement between Syria and Jordan and is intended to regulate the use of the region's water, for example through the construction of the Al-Wahda Dam on the border between the two countries. However, debates over compliance with the agreement continue, even "after 50 years of negotiations," Katz explains, because Syria pumps groundwater before it reaches the Yarmouk River and from there to the dam - thus harming Jordan's water supply. "Jordan takes everything it can from the Yarmouk. In the winter, when there is a surplus, it reaches Israel." In addition, since the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan, Israel has been supplying Jordan with an annual amount of water from Lake Kinneret.
Environmental boundaries
The connection between water security in our neighboring countries and Israel's security seems clear. As for the question of whether peaceful borders or "active" borders are preferable for nature and the environment from a security perspective, the answer is complex and not unambiguous. According to Katz, in studies that have examined demilitarized zones around the world - which are border areas without a military presence and with limited human activity - such as On the Korean Peninsula, found that biodiversity grows and thrives. "In conflict zones, humans sometimes don't have access to water and then the ecosystem is preserved. On the other hand, when there is peace and increased human access to the area, accelerated development and intensive use of nature begin, and therefore damage to ecosystems," he explains.
However, even during conflict, the natural environment may be damaged. study conducted on the Yarmouk in the period before the fall of Assad describes the competition for water as a factor that hinders cooperation and leads to overexploitation of the river's water. Accordingly, the ecosystem around it ceases to be sustainable, especially given population growth and climate change. "Conflict interferes with cooperation, with efficient and coordinated use, with maintenance and construction of systems." From an economic perspective, Katz also adds that conflict reduces investment in projects. "Nobody invests in something that might explode in a few years."
Water and politics
Water shapes a large part of the power relations between countries in the world. "When the state was founded, water was a matter of paramount importance. All senior politicians dealt with water." According to Katz, in the 60s, the PLO and the Syrians tried to damage the national carrier and divert the flow of water in the main rivers that flow into Israel from the north - the Banias and the Hatzbani. "In Israel, they saw this as a pretext for war and attacked Syria," he explains. In the 90s, regional peace talks included a track that focused on this issue. Since then, at least until the current war, Katz describes cooperation between Israel and Jordan. For example, projects that have been discussed but not yet advanced are theMed-Dead which is supposed to connect the Mediterranean Sea to the Dead Sea; the Sea Canal which is supposed to connect the Red Sea to the Dead Sea; and the supply of desalinated water from Israel in exchange for electricity from solar energy produced in Jordan.
Now, despite the security developments, Katz believes that there will be no major change in the use of the stream's water. "Israel has no interest in receiving more water, it has an interest in supplying water to Jordan, so that there will be a stable regime there, and so that people will have no reason to be resentful," Katz explains, adding, "What happened in Syria will not continue in Jordan." According to him, the uprising against Assad began in the city of Daraa, which is near the source of the Yarmouk, and included Syrian farmers who complained about the lack of water supply. In fact, in the early years of the uprising, the Syrians were unable to manage the water economy in the Yarmouk area, their water pumping was damaged, and as a result, Jordan received more water. Recently, there has been no visible damage to the water supply in Jordan.
Looking to the future, Katz does not expect the Syrian rebels to build water plants and water pumping stations with the deliberate aim of harming Jordan. However, he warns, this could happen indirectly as a result of local water needs and the lack of oversight in what is now the "Wild West." In any case, Jordan suffers from a water shortage, and we as Israelis would not want the situation to worsen and encourage the rise of a hostile regime in its territory. "If there is no water in the Yarmouk, then there is no water in the Abdullah Canal and there is no water for agriculture in the Jordan Valley - that is where the king's support base is." If they are not on King Abdullah's side, "he's gone," Katz concludes.
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