It appears that the Earth has been warmer since the 18s than in the entire XNUMX centuries preceding this period. say scientists
Avi Blizovsky
The Vikings were not moved by the climate.
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It appears that the Earth has been warmer since the 18s than in the entire XNUMX centuries preceding this period. say scientists.
They reconstructed the climate based on data obtained from ice cores, vegetation and other records.
They estimate that their research provides unique confirmation that humans are influencing the climate. However, skeptics still insist that the human contribution is too small to explain what happened.
The scientists are Prof. Philip Jones, from the climate research department at the University of East Anglia in Great Britain, and Prof. Michael Mann from the University of Virginia in the USA.
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, supports the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
After researching data from up to a thousand years ago, the panel states that the end of the 20th century was the hottest period on record, and perhaps there is no wonder because the period between the 13th and 16th centuries is known as the Little Ice Age. In order to test the strength of the claims that the world was warmer before the year XNUMX AD, they sought to reproduce the climate data for the last two millennia.
They studied trunks of ancient trees from different regions of the world to produce records of local conditions - the thickness of the annual growth rings is dictated by the climate.
They also studied cores dug from the ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica, where air bubbles were studied that provide information about the climate that prevailed when the ice formed.
A third source of information is the historical records, mainly from the Netherlands, Switzerland and China.
The researchers were unable to find enough information to obtain data on the southern hemisphere, and therefore they can say that their conclusion that the recent period is the warmest in the last thousand years is safe and at least reflects what is happening in the northern hemisphere. While some parts of the Earth were warmer than now, they said, average temperatures were colder. They say that the Earth has warmed at least 0.2 degrees in the last twenty years - a rate it took for it to warm or cool over the past hundred years.
Prof. Jones says: "This just shows how dramatic the warming has been in recent years. It cannot be explained in any other way, it represents the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
Some scientists believe that the recent rise in temperature is explained by changes in solar radiation, with the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases having too small an effect to be measured.
Others say that historical data shows that climate change occurs naturally when human influence is irrelevant to global trends. As for the argument that even a thousand years ago the north of the British Isles was a good place for growing wine grapes, the authors of the study said that today there are much more.
They say that the Viking expedition to Grinland in 980 was in search of land, not a warmer climate. They also reinterpret the fact that the River Thames would often freeze over, and the original design of London Bridge was influenced by this fact.
According to Prof. Jones, "The climate skeptics are betting on a dead horse. You can't say that the whole world was once warmer than it is now just because Europe was warmer. You have to collect all the data together, as we did. We would like more records especially from the tropics, but we believe we have enough information to prove that the world today is warmer than in all of the last two thousand years.
For news at the BBC
The estimate: about twenty thousand died in the heat in Europe in August 2003
Empire of the Sun
An Israeli-Canadian study claims: increased activity of the sun is responsible for global warming - not the greenhouse effect
Maariv, 24/8/2003
Global warming is usually attributed to the greenhouse effect, but a new study states that increased activity of the sun itself is the cause of the phenomenon. The Israeli physicist Dr. Nir Shabib from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and the Canadian geologist Prof. Jan Weiser from the University of Ottawa in Canada published their work on the subject in the journals GSA Today and Nature. Using a computer model, the two recreated the temperature measurements of the world in the last 550 million years, and compared them with the measurements of the flux of cosmic radiation from the sun and the amounts of carbon dioxide that accumulated in the Earth's atmosphere.
This is how the contribution of all these parameters to the climate changes that have occurred over the years was tested and quantified. Dr. Shabiv claims - contrary to the prevailing position - that it is cosmic radiation that affects climate change, and not greenhouse gases.
Cosmic radiation consists of energetic particles that are accelerated in their movement. When massive stars die (in a vapernova, "stellar explosion"), some of the particles reach the solar system and Earth. As radiation increases, the production of ions (the electrically charged particles) increases in the lower part of the atmosphere, where weather phenomena occur, including those that caused the current hot summer in Europe.
Dr. Shabib believes that the role of carbon dioxide is secondary in its effect on long-term climate change and weather events, and that 75% of changes in the atmosphere are caused by cosmic radiation. According to the study, the effect of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases - a result of burning polluting fuels and engine emissions - cannot be measured. The researchers concluded that no effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a significant reduction in global temperatures.
In a contrasting study, scientists from the US, UK and Germany claim that gas emissions from car engines, chimneys and power plants are significantly responsible for global climate change. Their explanation is that the gases increase the thickness of the seam layer between the layers
which is lower in the atmosphere and the stratosphere, which is distant in layers. The seam layer, the tropopause, which is 8-16 km from the Earth, has thickened in the last 20 years by 200 meters and warmed by 0.2 degrees. "Man's fingerprints are very clear in the tropopause," the scientists emphasized in their article for Science. In their estimation, the human contribution to climate change reaches 0.758 percent.
Germany: a significant increase in mortality in Cologne due to the heat
* Update 4/9/03
Senior officials in the municipality of Cologne in Germany said yesterday that the city recorded a 16% increase in the number of deaths in August, compared to the usual average. This is the first report from one of the largest cities in Germany about a sharp increase in the number of dead due to the heat wave in Europe. Berhard Schonmann, deputy head of the city's sanitation department, said only eight of the August deaths were officially linked to the heat wave. However, he clarified that the increase in the number of dead to 127 - 902 more than the average for the month of August - was unexpected.
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