Beijing and Hong Kong are no longer infected with SARS

Yesterday, Hong Kong was removed from the list of areas infected with Sars, and China is also on the way. Two main factors slowed down the epidemic: isolation of people who came into contact with sick people but had not yet gotten sick themselves, and the warming of the weather

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The early isolation method was successful, Sars is disappearing.

Three months ago it seemed that the Sars epidemic was going to spread to the whole world. The mysterious disease, which broke out in southern China, had no vaccine and no treatment, nor a reliable diagnostic method.

Today, SARS disappears almost as quickly as it appeared, and in almost the same unpredictable way. About two weeks ago, the World Health Organization announced that the disease had been eradicated. The organization's only recommendation that remains - to avoid traveling to Beijing - should be canceled within a few days. In Hong Kong, where the largest number of cases of illness and death relative to the size of the population have been recorded, no new cases have been diagnosed since June 2, and yesterday the World Health Organization removed Hong Kong from the list of areas infected with SARS.
According to doctors, the epidemic may return when the weather cools down. But representatives of the medical establishment and infectious disease experts are now working hard to learn everything they can about the sudden rise and fall of SARS. These experts examine what caused its spread, what strategies have been proven effective in containing it, and what methods may work the next time a disease moves from animals and begins to spread rapidly among humans.

One encouraging sign is that SARS has been contained by one of the oldest medical tools: isolation. This is done in hospitals through better infection control and the early isolation of people who have been in close contact with people who have contracted the disease. The thought was that if these people got sick afterwards, they wouldn't spread the disease to other people.

This approach was successful because it seems that the Sars disease is mainly transmitted through relatively large droplets, which are able to travel through the air a distance that does not exceed 1.5 meters; This is in contrast to droplets that remain in the air and can move from floor to floor in a building, as is the case with smallpox. And while some of the patients were found to be extremely contagious, other people hardly infected others.
"These measures, which were taken back in the Middle Ages, have proven themselves," said Dr. Mike Ryan, a senior official at the World Health Organization and an infectious disease expert. "If this was a disease that travels very freely in the air, the measures we took would not have been effective."

One of the reasons why the containment effort was successful is the unusual cooperation between the scientists recruited by the World Health Organization. Another reason is that some countries, including the US, have increased the readiness of their health systems for the possibility of biological terrorist attacks.

Businessmen and public office holders in the affected countries, who were shocked by the damage caused to trade and tourism due to the recommendations of the World Health Organization to avoid coming to their countries, claimed that the fear of the Sars epidemic was exaggerated. It should be noted that the number of deaths worldwide was relatively small - slightly more than 800. This number is about one-sixth of the number of people who die from tuberculosis every day.

But doctors who treated Sars patients claim that the risk was real. According to them, considering the mortality rate among patients with the disease (about 15% in the general population and more than 50% among those aged 65 and over), it could have caused devastating results if not stopped.

According to experts, this possibility has not been completely eliminated. They are concerned that the disease still exists, even though the people who contract it do not develop a serious illness. These experts fear that the SARS epidemic will break out again in the coming fall and winter and that the renewed outbreak will be more violent.

"There is no doubt that there is a seasonal aspect to this disease; otherwise we would not have witnessed its rapid disappearance," said Dr. Robert Webster, a viral disease specialist at St. Jude Children's Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. "Not only was the isolation so effective, nature also lent a helping hand."

Other experts doubt that the seasonal aspect played a key role in containing the virus. Dr. Alfred Sommer, Dean of the School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, noted that Singapore has been able to contain the disease even though the country's climate is almost unchanged due to its location on the equator. However, he said, "This does not mean that we are not in for a very bad surprise." next fall and winter."

Source: Keith Bradsher and Lawrence Altman New York Times
Ydan Hassars
For news on the subject at the BBC

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